The current arm conflict in continental Europe is nothing but a step in redrawing the map of regional and international coalitions in the medium and long term, which has been planned for the last twenty years to ensure global domination and prevent the advancement of other international powers.

The international political scene is currently witnessing rapid movements that will have a direct impact on the form and nature and establishment of regional and international coalitions in the medium and long term. The reason for these rapid movements and complex international crises is the attempt for international and global domination by monopolizing the arms of power and domination over the structure and destiny of other countries. Its proponents are major countries that are able to overcome crises and use crises to serve their highest political aspirations, and their arms are politically dependent countries or small and medium-sized countries under the banner of the coalition affiliated with major countries. If these basic dimensions of international politics and their main and ultimate goals are understood, it is easy to predict the direction of world politics and the nature of international alliances that will be formed in the future. If we look at the reality of international politics now, and what we see in the political movements between the major powers on the international stage, and the complex crises and bloody military conflicts, especially in continental Europe, we then find ourselves in the face of a complex and difficult political situation with consequences not only for the continental Europe, but for all parties to the international community as a result of the international and global standing of the parties to the conflict and the distinct economic, industrial and technological position of this will have countries involved. The current political crisis and armed conflict in Ukraine will certainly have a direct impact on the form and nature of international coalitions in the near and medium term, especially since the parties to this armed conflict are directly or indirectly major powers capable of influence for the course of international politics and the global economy.

The world powers involved are trying to win this war in every possible way and are acting in the best interests of others, regardless of the interests of others. Each of these global powers expects allies and friends to take a pro-political stance, direct diplomatic support, and logistical or strategic support to help achieve its desired victory. Therefore, it can be said that these world powers are involved in the waiting phase to see what political position their allies and friends will take. The waiting or clarifying stage of international positions on the current conflict is an extremely important stage for the world powers involved in determining who their allies and friends are, and it is an extremely sensitive stage for other countries, because the international system forces them to choose to side with one side against the other. As a result, neutrality and gray positions are not accepted from their side.

This political crisis and the armed conflict between international and world powers in continental Europe will lead to the redrawing of international coalitions based on the declared political positions of the countries and the economic, logistical and strategic positions of the international community. Thus, there is no more neutrality and moderation in political positions. We will witness either the full and direct approval of each side to establish the depth of relations and the correctness of the alliances by the countries, either silence or neutrality, which will lead to the historical failure of all parties involved.

Based on this data from the political positions of the countries, the international powers involved in continental Europe, which are directly or indirectly involved, will try to redefine their allies and friends. Therefore, the position of traditional allies and friends who take open positions will be promoted, and a new phase will begin for countries that take a biased position in order to gain distinct political interests and positions in the future. But any country that adopts political neutrality, according to the world powers, will lose its position, privileges and interests in international coalitions and will never be accepted by the world powers in the future.

If the stated political positions strengthen the positions of the countries in the major international coalitions, what we need to consider is how these international coalitions will look like after the end of the armed conflict. The victorious side in this armed conflict will strengthen its global position at the political and strategic level and its economic and industrial ties and possibilities and strengthen its technological dominance over the international community, and its allies and friends will reap great and varied benefits through its public and direct support. However, the loser in this armed conflict will lose its global political and strategic position, and its economic and industrial capabilities and facilities will be reduced, and the losses of its allies and friends at all levels and in all areas.

In closing, the current armed conflict in continental Europe is only one-step in the process of redrawing the map of international coalitions, and it is a very sensitive stage for the parties to the international community, so that it becomes difficult to take pro-opposition or anti-political positions. However, this is the nature of complex international politics; as the advantages and disadvantages that can be achieved if the calculations are correct are great, the same disadvantages and negative points can occur in case of incorrect evaluation and miscalculations.


Disclaimer. The views and opinions expressed in this op-ed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of MEPEI. Any content provided by our authors is of their opinion and is not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual, or anyone or anything.

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About the author:


Amin Bagheri is a Research Fellow at the International Studies Association in Tehran. His primary research interest lies in international relations, transnational governance, international peace, and conflicts in the Middle East.

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