by Mr. Muhammad Shafiy bin MAZLAN•Published on January 27, 2025

Photo: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani met in Ankara in December 2024, https://www.aa.com.tr/

Introduction

Türkiye-Qatar relations remain exceptionally strong despite ongoing geopolitical challenges, significantly influencing the region’s political and economic dynamics. Both state actors have played pivotal roles throughout the Syrian uprising and its aftermath. While maintaining a balance with other regional powers, Türkiye and Qatar are poised to make significant contributions to Syria’s post-Assad reconstruction efforts. This opportunity has been further solidified as the new Syrian administration permits the reopening of diplomatic missions, signaling a step toward reviving external relations and rebuilding the economy after years of political turmoil. The Syrian crisis was a key agenda item during the meeting between President Erdoğan and Emir Sheikh Tamim of Qatar on December 17, 2024. This essay explores the critical roles of the Türkiye-Qatar partnership in the political and economic rebuilding of Syria.

1. Defining Political Economy of Turkiye-Qatar Alliance

To understand the political economy of the Türkiye-Qatar alliance, it is essential to first grasp the concept of political economy itself, which has been defined in various ways by scholars. Classical liberal thinkers like Adam Smith and David Ricardo viewed political economy as the interplay between politics (state power) and economics (market growth), while Karl Marx critiqued it through the lens of class struggle, focusing on labor exploitation and capital accumulation. Over time, political economy evolved into International Political Economy (IPE), which examines the interaction between global politics and economic systems. In the context of the Türkiye-Qatar alliance, their political economy is rooted in a strategic partnership that blends political and economic cooperation with a shared geopolitical vision. This alliance is particularly significant in fostering regional stability and addressing issues such as the Syrian conflict.

2. The Formation of Alliance in brief

The strong diplomatic relationship between Türkiye and Qatar was forged during the Arab Spring, as both states aligned in supporting political change and the rise of political Islam, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood. This ideological alignment gained traction amid the Arab Spring movements in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Syria, where both sought to expand their influence. However, their support for political Islam threatened the status quo of regional powers like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt, who opposed this agenda. Tensions peaked in 2017 when Saudi Arabia and its GCC allies imposed a blockade on Qatar, accusing it of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and maintaining ties with Iran. During this period, Türkiye provided crucial economic and military support to Qatar, further strengthening their alliance. In return, Qatar agreed to a $3 billion currency swap deal to aid Türkiye during its lira crisis and facilitated access to the Taliban in Afghanistan. This shared isolation solidified their partnership, which has since grown through trade and investment, with bilateral trade projected to reach $5 billion by the end of 2024. Despite regional challenges, the Türkiye-Qatar alliance has emerged as a strategic counterbalance to rival political blocs in the region.

3. Roles in Rebuilding Syria

3.1. Political Stability

Turkiye and Qatar have been key state actors in supporting transitional governance to restore political stability in Syria. Throughout the Syrian crisis, both countries have maintained close ties with Syrian opposition groups, advocating for their inclusion in a post-conflict government. Their commitment to state-building includes aiding Syrians in rebuilding institutions such as the judiciary, law enforcement, and local governance bodies to strengthen post-war governance. Following diplomatic visits, both nations reaffirmed their dedication to supporting Syria. Qatari Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani emphasized Doha’s support for building partnerships that benefit the Syrian people, including providing sustainable public services, and urged the lifting of international sanctions on Syria. Similarly, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, during his meeting with Syrian counterpart Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani, reiterated Turkiye’s priorities: fostering stability, promoting national reconciliation, and facilitating the return of Syrian refugees to their homeland.

The alliance between Türkiye and Qatar could serve as effective mediators in peace negotiations, with the shared objective of achieving political stability and internal security in Syria. Both state actors have a strong track record in mediation efforts, such as Qatar’s role in the Israel-Hamas deal and Turkiye’s mediation in resolving the decades-long Ethiopia-Somalia feud. Leveraging their influence over opposition groups and their partnerships with international stakeholders, they could play a pivotal role in ensuring a stable political transition in Syria. Both state actors have also expressed mutual concerns about Syria’s political stability. This was highlighted during Sheikh Tamim of Qatar’s surprise visit to Ankara on December 17, 2024, where he met with President Erdoğan. On January 15, 2025, during an AK Party meeting, President Erdoğan warned against any foreign intrusion, particularly Israel into Syria’s territorial integrity. Turkiye also offered operational support to eliminate terrorist groups, including Daesh, and to counter external aggression. Additionally, Turkiye underscored the importance of lifting sanctions on Syria to facilitate infrastructure reconstruction and the return of millions of Syrian refugees.

3.2. Economic Development

Despite their shared stance on urging the international community to lift sanctions on Syria, Turkiye and Qatar are also committed to actively participating in post-conflict economic rebuilding and development. Turkiye has outlined plans to support Syria’s reconstruction, including repairing the historic Hejaz railway, developing metro systems in Damascus and Aleppo, and enhancing road and sea transport links. These initiatives, part of a proposed five-phase reconstruction plan, aim to reopen trade routes and boost regional connectivity to stimulate economic recovery. Meanwhile, Qatar has expressed its intention to assist Syria by funding government salaries and significantly increasing public sector wages. With Turkiye’s expertise in reconstruction in conflict zones and Qatar’s leadership in Liquifed Natural Gas (LNG), both state actors are well-positioned to rebuild Syria’s energy infrastructure. This includes providing electricity-generating ships with a capacity of 800 megawatts, repairing damaged energy infrastructure such as oil refineries, pipelines, and electricity grids, and integrating Syria into regional energy markets through Turkish pipelines and ports. Additionally, their plans to resume flights to Syria demonstrate their commitment to fostering regional connectivity and economic integration. Beyond infrastructure, Turkiye and Qatar continue to provide essential humanitarian aid to improve the social lives of Syrians. For instance, Turkiye, through the Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TIKA) and humanitarian organization IHH (International Humanitarian Relief), and Qatar, via the Qatar Fund for Development (QFD), recently dispatched 31 tons of aid to Damascus, demonstrating their continued solidarity with the Syrian people.

4. Conclusion: Challenges

In conclusion, Turkiye and Qatar’s efforts in rebuilding Syria underline their strategic commitment to fostering political stability and economic recovery in the war-torn country. Their initiatives, ranging from supporting transitional governance to rebuilding infrastructure, reflect a shared vision for a stable Syria. However, the road ahead is fraught with challenges. Regional rivalries remain inevitable, as competing powers, including the Saudi-led GCC, pursue their own agendas. These dynamics could create tensions that complicate Türkiye and Qatar’s ability to maintain a cohesive approach. Furthermore, international sanctions on Syria continue to hinder reconstruction efforts, limiting access to vital resources and foreign investment needed for sustainable recovery.

Adding to the complexity, Syria’s fragile security landscape and the presence of diverse factions represent significant obstacles to achieving lasting political unity. The delicate balance of addressing these internal divisions while fostering stability remains a monumental task. Meanwhile, Turkiye’s evolving foreign policy dynamics, particularly the possibility of strengthening ties with the Saudi-led GCC, could redefine the nature of its partnership with Qatar. This shift may influence their collective role in shaping Syria’s future and could introduce new variables into an already intricate geopolitical equation. Ahmed al Shaara’s capability to unite Syria under a cohesive leadership could be critical in ensuring long-term stability and national reconciliation. Despite these challenges, Türkiye and Qatar’s alliance will likely remain pivotal in navigating the complexities of Syria’s post-conflict recovery.

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Mr. Muhammad Shafiy bin MAZLAN

Mr. Muhammad Shafiy bin MAZLAN is an independent researcher in Turkiye Foreign Policy in the Middle East, Foreign Policy Analysis and the Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Foreign Policy. He got International Master in Regional Integration from Asia-Europe Institute (AEI), University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.