by Ms. Alexandrina RUSU•Published on January 21, 2025

Source of photo: https://futureuae.com/

Donald Trump’s re-election triumph marks a turning point in the way American foreign policy is approached in the face of the intensifying and widening conflicts in the Middle East. By returning to the “America First” Doctrine, the new administration led by President Trump is expected to focus primarily on transactional policies, trade protectionism, and the reshaping of global relations. This essay aims to examine how the Washington administration will apply these principles in the interest of conciliating the increasingly wide-ranging disputes in the Middle East, identifying potential changes and continuities in the commitments assumed by the Democrats. The most important topics on the American policy agenda in the region include the military conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, the integration of Israel into the Middle East, the tense bilateral relations between the United States and Iran, cooperation with the Persian Gulf states, and the evolution of the internal situation in Syria after the collapse of the Assad regime.

Being an area marked by proactive conflicts, the current realities in the Middle East have changed dramatically since the end of Donald Trump’s first term in early 2021. In his congratulatory message to the new American president, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared: “Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America. This is a huge victory!” According to foreign policy analyses, ending the wars in Gaza and Lebanon and the prominence of Israel into the Middle East are the priorities on the President’s agenda with reference to the region. In his electoral campaign speeches, President Trump talked about peace in the Middle East, as he did about Ukraine, but he omitted to offer a concrete strategy or to present how his policies would differ from those of his predecessor. However, in April 2024, Donald Trump said that Israel must “quickly finish what it started with a victory”[1] to restore peace and normalcy, adding that “the attack of October 7 would not have happened if he had been president.”

During his first term, Trump made some radical decisions in favor of Israel. In 2017, the United States recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, moving the embassy to West Jerusalem and closing the US Consulate General in East Jerusalem (which served as a semi-official liaison to the Palestinian Authority). Two years later, he proclaimed Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, a territory considered by the entire international community to be part of Syria and under Israeli occupation following the 1967 Six-Day War. It is expected that, despite the close relationship between the Israeli prime minister and the future US president, the White House administration’s approach to the “Palestinian issue” will be nuances. Shortly after the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, Trump criticized the Netanyahu-led government and Israeli intelligence services for their inability to prevent such an event. Trump and his team have already made efforts for a ceasefire or temporary peace agreements to show their skill and ability to “stop the war-”, as he mentioned in his victory speech in Florida. Such an approach could also include a series of Israeli annexations in the West Bank, which could end American support for Palestinian independence and the “two-state solution”, but this issue will remain ambiguous.

The Abraham Accords, which establish diplomatic ties between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, were the first Trump administration’s greatest foreign policy achievement. After failed attempts by the Biden administration, a second Trump administration appears set to prioritize securing a similar agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. However, in the absence of formal recognition of the state of Palestine, the prospects for an Israeli-Saudi agreement face formidable challenges, given Saudi Arabia’s leadership role in the Arab and Islamic world, and Riyadh is unlikely to abandon the Palestinian cause, for which it has long championed.

On another level, a challenge for emerging Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates would be managing their closer relationship with China. In recent years, the oil-producing states have expanded their trade and technology ties with China, despite strained relations between Washington and Beijing. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been invited to join the BRICS group, and Saudi Arabia has been granted dialogue partner status within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Riyadh and Abu Dhabi also use Chinese technology for key infrastructure, and despite pledges to limit Beijing’s influence over their emerging artificial intelligence sectors [2], Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increasingly relied on Chinese expertise in this area.

On the other hand, during the Biden administration, Iran has increased its oil exports, increased its support for militant groups, expanded its stockpiles to alarming levels, and engaged in direct military confrontation in the conflict with Israel, launching two missile attacks in 2024, including on civilian areas. Following these precedents, the next four years could be a real collapse for the Islamic Republic’s financial situation, which could mean a return to the “maximum pressure” campaign imposed by Trump during his previous term, an action that increased Iran’s isolation and paralyzed the economy. Trump has repeatedly stated that he does not want regime change in Tehran and that he is willing to reach an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program.

Without its network of regional combatants, ballistic missile capabilities, and an internationally monitored nuclear program, Iran would significantly reduce its defense capabilities. Such a compromise would leave Iran vulnerable to external pressure. Consequently, a deal with Washington based on the conditions imposed by the Americans – the cessation of the military dimension of the nuclear program, inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the cessation of Iran’s ballistic missile program, the cessation of support for Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis and the disarmament of Iraqi militias – could seem like an act of capitulation for Iran, without necessarily guaranteeing the survival of the regime. However, rejecting such an agreement exposes Iran to serious risks, given that its air defenses were seriously affected following the recent Israeli attacks in late October 2024.

A major factor in Iran’s relationship with the next US president will be how Donald Trump chooses to respond to recent US intelligence reports suggesting Tehran was behind the assassination attempt – allegations that Iran has dismissed as “baseless and malicious”.[3] The Trump administration’s stance on Tehran will also depend on the figures who are appointed to lead the institutions concerned with national security and foreign policy, the State Department – ​​especially the person who will take over the Iran portfolio – the Department of Defense and the National Security Council. If the nominees share anti-Islamic Republic views, an aggressive stance on Iran from the administration will follow.

Regarding the situation in Syria, there is still no clarity on how the President will choose to respond to the regime change and transition of power. Shortly after the collapse of the Assad regime, Donald Trump declared that the United States should avoid military involvement, noting in a social media post that: “THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT”. Moreover, in his previous term, he tried to evacuate American troops from northeastern Syria, where they had the mission to cooperate with Kurdish forces to counter ISIS influences. On December 10, 2024, Republican Joe Wilson, the ranking member of the House Middle East Subcommittee, and Brendan Boyle, the co-chair of the Democratic Syria Caucus, wrote to President Joe Biden’s administration, calling for the lifting of sanctions against Syria, stating that the Assad regime represents a “crucial opportunity. to responsibly lift sanctions”[4].

The attempt by the insurgent group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to promote a moderate plan to restructure the Syrian state and deepen relations with foreign countries creates the necessary conditions for establishing the legitimacy of the new leadership in the international arena. The relaxation, even partial, of the sanctions imposed on the former regime is an imperative objective in order to recover from the dire state of the national economy, a process that includes the reconstruction of roads, power grids, infrastructure and oil and gas wells. Adopting a cautious approach to the new leadership in Damascus, it remains to be seen in which direction bilateral relations will develop under the leadership of Donald Trump and the fulfillment of which conditions will make it possible to lift the current sanctions.

In conclusion, the future White House Administration is to focus primarily on preventing the escalation of existing conflicts in the Middle East. The paradigm that the President of the United States will succeed in establishing peace in the region is an overly ambitious assumption, especially considering the uncertain situation in Syria, but also the close relationship between Trump and representatives of Israel. The fact that Israel seems to become the main vector for implementing American policy in the East considerably reduces the chances of proclaiming an independent Palestinian state, separate from Israel. Moreover, ties with the developed monarchies of the Gulf region would bring back the transactional approach to bilateral relations, while they would also be viewed as strategic partners in the increasingly tense rivalry of the United States with Iran.

References

• Charles W. Dunne, A Second Trump Administration: Potential Policy Toward the Middle East, Arab Center, Washington DC, https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/a-second-trump-administration-potential-policy-toward-the-middle-east/ ;
• Ellie Sennett, Sunniva Rose, Willy Lowry, When will sanctions against Syria be lifted?, The National News, https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2024/12/12/syria-sanctions-when-lifted-hts/
• Kate Sullivan, Trump says Israel needs to ‘finish what they started’ and said war with Hamas is ‘taking a long time’, CNN Politics, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/04/politics/trump-israel-comments/index.html ;
• Lawrence Freedman, The return of the Trump doctrine, https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/2024/11/donald-trump-foreign-policy ;
• Mohammed A. Salih, Between Activism and Isolationism: What to Expect From Trump’s Middle East Policy – Analysis, Foreign Policy Research Institute, https://www.fpri.org/article/2024/11/trump-second-term-middle-east-policy/ ;
• Mostafa Salem, Nadeen Ebrahim and Mick Krever, Here’s what’s at stake in the Middle East under Trump’s second term, CNN World, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/06/middleeast/trump-middle-east-iran-israel-saudi-gulf-mime-intl/index.html ;
• Newsweek, Donald Trump’s Victory Speech in Full: Transcript, https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-victory-speech-full-transcript-1981234 ;
• Tarik M. Yousef , Trump Election Heralds the End of Economic Liberalism?, Middle East Council on Global Affairs, https://mecouncil.org/blog_posts/trumps-return-and-implications-for-the-middle-east/

[1] Kate Sullivan, Trump says Israel needs to ‘finish what they started’ and said war with Hamas is ‘taking a long time’, CNN Politics, 04.04 2024, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/04/politics/trump-israel-comments/index.html

[2]Tarik M. Yousef , Trump Election Heralds the End of Economic Liberalism?, Middle East Council on Global Affairs, 07.11.2024, https://mecouncil.org/blog_posts/trumps-return-and-implications-for-the-middle-east/

[3] Mostafa Salem, Nadeen Ebrahim and Mick Krever, Here’s what’s at stake in the Middle East under Trump’s second term, CNN World, 06.11.2024, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/06/middleeast/trump-middle-east-iran-israel-saudi-gulf-mime-intl/index.html

[4] Ellie Sennett, Sunniva Rose, Willy Lowry, When will sanctions against Syria be lifted?, The National News, 13.12.2024, https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2024/12/12/syria-sanctions-when-lifted-hts/

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