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Donald Trump was sworn in for a second term on January 20, 2024. He returns to office with a sound mandate, a fresh team and complete control over the Senate and House of Representatives. In his inaugural address, President Trump announced various initiatives that have kick-started intense debate over the likely shifts in the United States’ domestic and foreign policies. Without mincing the word, he criticized his predecessor’s strategies and subsequently signed a slew of executive orders to enact a 180-degree turn away from many Biden Administration’s policies. Simultaneously, he promised to maximize the Americans’ gains in the international setting.
President Trump reiterated his “America First” and “Peace through Strength” promises for domestic consumption during his inaugural speech. On January 20, 2024, the executive order stated: “It is the policy of my Administration to put the interests of the United States and the American people first in the development and negotiation of any international agreements with the potential to damage or stifle the American economy. These agreements must not unduly or unfairly burden the United States.” He promised to declare a “national energy emergency” to bring down energy prices for domestic consumers.
President Trump has prioritized the revival of domestic manufacturing through protectionism. While speaking at the Davos summit, he recently announced that he would reduce the corporate tax rate from 40% under Biden to 15% if businesses choose to manufacture their product in the United States. Moreover, his plan to impose higher tariffs on imports from China and countries that have a trade surplus with the US may be pleasing for the local industry but frustrating for the domestic consumer. Indeed, the tariff war will be dreadful for American exporters because China and other US trading partners will increase tariffs on the products manufactured by American companies.
Trump’s foreign policy towards neighbours and allies seems transactional. His annexation agenda alarms the US’s closest allies, including members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). He issued executive orders to change the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America. He announced to regain control of the Panama Canal (an artificial 82-kilometer waterway in Panama that connects the Atlantic and Pacific oceans), handed over to the Panamanian Government in 1999 describing it as “vital” for national security.
President Trump sought to annex Greenland and turn Canada into the 51st US state, citing strategic and resource-driven motives. Greenland, under Denmark’s control since the 14th century and home to a large US Air Force base, was briefly occupied by the US during World War-II. Trump even signalled the use of military force, threatening Denmark and Canada, both NATO founding members. Leaders from these nations rejected his plans outright. His annexation agenda contradicts his campaign pledge to “stop wars” and avoid foreign entanglements. Furthermore, it raises questions about his response to NATO’s Asian focus and its Euro-Atlantic defense commitments. Although he previously claimed he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours, he now estimates three to six months. Trump’s military strategy in his second term is marked by contradictions and uncertainties, undermining his promise of a clear, restrained approach to foreign policy.
The Trump Administration withdrew from the Paris Climate Change Agreement and the World Health Organization (WHO). The US exit from the Agreement and WHO will undermine the international community’s consensus and efforts to mitigate the repercussions of climate change and pandemic diseases. For instance, recently, the Los Angeles wildfires killed 27 people and burned through more than 12,000 structures, causing over $150 billion in economic losses. In 2024, the US was a major donor to the WHO, contributing $950 million, or 14.53% of the WHO’s total budget. Trump and his Advisors have to realize that climate degradation and infectious disease do not respect international borders and need coordinated international efforts to address them instead of increasing US fossil fuel production. President Trump jubilantly mentioned the ceasefire between Israel and Palestinian-Hamas in his inaugural address. He has been claiming some credit and will continue to claim it. He said on Truth Social that the “epic” agreement was only possible because he won November’s presidential election. Trump seems confident that he will successfully impose his Middle Eastern plan on Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. However, the appointment of the hardline pro-Israel figures in his Cabinet and Ambassador to Israel brewed conflicting conclusions.
Trump’s next step would be bringing Saudi Arabia within the Abraham Accords framework and scaling down Iran’s nuclear program. Both are difficult tasks because the Saudis have made it very clear that serious progress towards the end goal of achieving Palestinian statehood is a prerequisite for Israel-Saudi diplomatic normalization. Though Iran’s position has been severely weakened during the last fifteen months due to Israel’s military campaigns across the region, yet without the candid involvement of China and Russia, commencing realistic negotiations on Iran’s nuclear and missile programs will be impossible. Iran had constituted strategic partnerships with China and Russia.
Trump’s initial moves also provide a few indications of his approach towards South Asia. His policy towards Pakistan is refracted through the lens of China and India. Secretary of State Marco Rubio introduced a Bill in the US Congress last year to enhance India-US ties. Similarly, Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth said, “We will work with our partners and allies to deter aggression in the Indo-Pacific from the Communist Chinese.” The India-US defence cooperation during Trump’s second term further strengthens for the sake of the Indo-Pacific strategy. The Trump Administration continues endorsing and supporting India’s ambitious plan to be a ‘net security provider’ in the Indian Ocean. So its approach towards minilateral security groups, i.e., Quad, I2U2, and AUKUS and Indian Ocean littoral states, including Pakistan, will be steered by his China containment strategy. Thus, Pakistan-China multifaceted cooperation will cause concern and insecurity for the Trump administration. In summary, President Trump’s “America First” brand is attractive to Americans but seems disadvantageous to multilateralism. Moreover, bullying other countries could be counterproductive for the US in the multipolar world.
This article was published initially on pakobserver.net.
Disclaimer. The views and opinions expressed in this analysis are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of MEPEI. Any content provided by our author is of his opinion and is not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual, or anyone or anything.
