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After over five decades of authoritarian rule and thirteen harsh years of civil war, the Assad regime experienced a remarkably swift and unexpected collapse on December 8, 2024, occurring in less than two weeks. The Syrian civil war, one of the worst man-made disasters since the second world war, claimed over 600,000 lives and displaced 14 million Syrians. It is no surprise, then, that Assad’s fall has ignited a profound wave of euphoria among Syrians, as they are finally liberated from the oppressive grip of the Assad family and its relentless apparatus that has been plagued and bedevilled the nation for 54 years.
The success of the Syrian opposition forces, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has brought about an exciting opportunity for Syrians to move on from this dark chapter in their history, as Syrians look toward capitalising on this opportunity to re-imagine a new political future.
Yet, the political landscape in Syria remains mired in uncertainty, evoking disquieting parallels to the post-2011 Libyan political reality, which was marked by persistent conflict, instability, and widespread displacement. As the initial revolutionary fervour in Syria begins to dissipate, harsh political realities akin to those seen in Libya could slowly threaten to emerge. This apprehension is not unfounded; the region’s history is replete with examples of failed democratization efforts – most notably in Yemen, Sudan, and Iraq – where promising revolutions devolved into state collapse and civil war.
It is thus imperative for both the Syrian leadership and the international community to engage actively during this delicate juncture to avert the emergence of a new chaotic and unstable political order. The stakes are too high, and the lessons of history too stark, to ignore the necessity of fostering a sustainable and inclusive political future that honours the aspirations of all Syrian people.
Therefore, this article will look to analyse the current situation in Syria one month after Assad’s collapse, while also exploring the essential steps necessary for the remaking of a political future for Syria.
So far, the political transition, along with initial statements, policy decisions, and engagements with foreign entities by Ahmed Al-Sharaa, the ruler of HTS and the new de facto leader of Syria, has been promising as he and HTS have demonstrated a degree of political sophistication and propitious political manoeuvring. It is clear that Al-Sharaa is acutely aware of the domestic, regional and global dynamics that could drag Syria into further instability. At this early and delicate stage Al-Sharaa has made concerted efforts to stabilize a vulnerable Syria.
One of the initial actions undertaken by HTS was the establishment of a caretaker / interim government to oversee and manage the transition in post-Assad Syria. This interim government is predominantly composed of the same individuals who previously led the group’s self-styled Salvation Government in the North-Western province of Idlib. This has raised concerns that the composition of this interim government signals an attempt to monopolize power, deviating from the hope of many in Syria and the international community of a more representative governing body.
In a recent conversation with Crisis Group, Al-Sharaa elaborated on this development, describing the interim government as a temporary measure intended to ensure order and expedite the restoration of essential services. He said he views the governance capacity the group attained in Idlib, and the trusting relationships forged among officials there, as major assets in the tumultuous early phase after the Assad regime’s downfall. He acknowledged that what HTS did in Idlib cannot serve as a model for Syria as a whole, given its much greater cultural and ideological diversity. But he argued that in this interim period, expediency outweighs the drawbacks of homogeneity in the caretaker government (Crisis Group, 2025). This perspective underscores Al-Sharaa’s prioritization of stability during the early, fragile phase of Syria’s transition as is arguably the most prudent strategy to adopt at this initial stage. However, what is promising is that Al-Sharaa acknowledges the challenges posed by the formation of his government in the long term and has made this viewpoint public. Therefore, it is essential to closely monitor whether Al-Sharaa will adhere to his commitments regarding the dissolution and reform of the interim government. Should Al-Sharaa and HTS attempt to monopolise power, it would likely result in the emergence of a chaotic and unstable political order.
To move forward, then, in one of the most diverse nations in the Middle East, characterised by a rich mosaic of diverse ethnicities, religions, and cultures, it is critical that all Syrians have a role in constructing a reimagined political future. The system of government and national dialogue must be inclusive, with representation of all voices in Syria, with elected officials so that the political transition reflects the will and diversity of the Syrian people in their construction of a free, democratic, and prosperous nation. However, this solution envisioned by foreign diplomats and HTS leaders alike is a deceptively simple concept. Successfully implementing this solution within a short timeframe presents a significant challenge, as it is far easier to articulate than to execute. A primary obstacle lies in determining how to allocate and divide up positions along ethnic and religious lines – a system that is widely perceived to have undermined governance while entrenching sectarianism in neighbouring Iraq and Lebanon.
A hopeful and promising development currently in the implementation phase is HTS’s planned Syrian National Dialogue Conference, initially scheduled for January 4-5, 2025, but subsequently postponed. This conference aims to convene approximately 1200 representatives who reflect the diverse makeup of Syrian society. HTS envisions the conference as a platform for launching a transition toward a united Syria, focusing on the formation of a government that represent this diversity, then dissolution of armed factions, and the establishment of advisory committees for governance and constitutional drafting. The postponement of the conference is a deliberate and preferable decision made by HTS to allow for necessary preparations that ensure meaningful and diverse participation, as well as to provide time for establishing stability and building trust with the Syrian people. The Dialogue conference has the potential to serve as a foundational step toward creating a democratic, unified, and stable Syria that reflects the aspirations of all its citizens.
To enhance the success of the transition and the upcoming dialogue conference, it would be beneficial to involve the UN more directly in this process. The UN’s office of the Special Envoy for Syria should collaborate with Damascus to ensure that follow-up committees are competent, diverse, and backed by individuals with the necessary technical expertise. The office can assist the authorities in clarifying the transitional framework, addressing concerns from the authorities in clarifying the transitional observers’ arbitrary actions. Thus, the UN is ideally positioned to play a vital role in this critical transitional phase, and should be actively involved in this process. This involvement will help ensure that the conference lays the groundwork for a democratic, unified, and stable Syria that reflects the aspirations of all its citizens.
Another key priority that Al-Sharaa is acutely aware of is the importance of boosting Syria’s economic sectors, which are vital for the country’s stability and future reconstruction. Fourteen years of civil war have devastated the economy, severely undermining productive capacity, causing the Syrian pound to collapse, and triggering devastating inflation. This turmoil has plunged more than two-thirds of the population into poverty, with the World Bank estimating that the GDP has contracted by 84% since 2010 (Mounier – Kuhn). In response, Al-Sharaa’s interim government has proactively sought to build relationships with neighbouring Arab countries to facilitate this development. Regaining a voice in the Arab League is a high priority on Al-Sharaa’s agenda. A recent meeting on January 18, 2025, with a delegation from the Arab League underscores his commitment to alleviating Syria’s isolation during the civil war. Al-Sharaa aims to reintegrate Syria into regional politics and developments, a move that could significantly benefit the country’s progress and transition, which would also mitigate the potential instability that may still arise.
Regional actors are already looking to and are poised to assist in the development and reconstruction of Syria’s energy resources and infrastructure. This evolving landscape promises to significantly influence the nation’s stability as Syria seeks to integrate its energy production and trade into a new era. Specifically, the revitalisation of its oil and natural gas sectors holds the potential to generate vital energy supplies and government revenue, both of which are essential for Syria’s stability and reconstruction efforts. Foreign actors such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia have already pledged support and involvement in Syria via the energy sector. Additionally, Turkish companies, such as TPAO and BOTAŞ are positioned to take a leading role in the future exploration and production of gas and oil in Syria. Furthermore, Turkish power companies are also expected to play a significant role in the country’s electricity sector (Shaffer). Syria’s oil and natural gas is a key component in Syria’s future, and it is thus noteworthy that Al-Sharaa is prioritising these sectors and actively engaging with Arab neighbours to bring about the much-needed development in Syria’s energy sector.
For the development and rebuilding of Syria’s energy resources and infrastructure, it is crucial that the interim government prioritises the reconnection and relationship of North-Eastern Syria with the central state. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and their de facto Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), also known as Rojava, govern and control a significant portion of Syria’s energy production. Consequently, a critical focus for Al-Sharaa and HTS is the strategic engagement with this region.
To foster unity and cooperation with the Kurdish administration, establishing a robust relationship with this autonomous region is essential. Al-Sharaa has initiated this process through his dialogue with SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi. Given the instability of this part of Syria, it is crucial to ensure that concrete steps are taken following this meeting to cement cooperation and unity, rather than conflict. Ideally, this collaboration should lead to the Kurdish region having a reinforced administrative autonomy, enhancing stability and promoting mutual interest of both parties.
It is clear that international organisations, bodies, and diplomats have no viable alternative, but to engage and work with the new authorities. Supporting rival factions or attempting to steer a different course for Syria’s future would be a recipe of chaos and political instability. Thus, the priority should be to adopt an optimistic approach and collaborate with the new authorities to collectively establish a foundation for a democratic, unified, and stable Syria that reflects the aspirations of all its citizens. One of the most significant obstacles to achieving this envisioned future for Syria is the imposition of international sanctions. Syria has endured sanctions for 45 years, making it one of the most sanctioned countries in the world. Additionally, HTS’s previous affiliation with Al-Qaeda, which is designated as a terrorist organisation, has resulted in further sanctions. These sanctions impact all sectors of Syria, threatening to harm the entire population by deterring the outside investment and engagement that Syria desperately needs in order to transition successfully. For meaningful progress, sanctions must either be entirely lifted or gradually eased for Syria so that it could reimagine its future.
Bibliography
Key Decisions Loom as Syria Enters a New Era. Crisis Group, January 2025, https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/east-mediterranean-mena/syria/key-decisions-loom-syria-enters-new-era . Accessed 16 Jan 2025
Mounier-Kuhn, Angelique. Syrian economy on its knees. Le Monde Diplomatique, January 2025 https://mondediplo.com/2025/01/03syria-box
Shaffer, Brenda, Syria’s energy sector and its impact on stability and regional development. Atlantic Council. January 2025, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/syrias-energy-sector-and-its-impact-on-stability-and-regional-developments/
Disclaimer. The views and opinions expressed in this analysis are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of MEPEI. Any content provided by our author is of his opinion and is not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual, or anyone or anything.
