Despite being widely known as crude oil exporters, the Persian Gulf countries, such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Oman, aim to significantly strengthen their green energy sectors. Some of them even hope to eventually lead the global energy transition. But how realistic is that?

Across the boundless UAE desert, rows of photovoltaic panels shine like a gleaming lake under the intense heat of the sun. This is the case for – Al Dhafra solar power plant, the largest such facility in the world, supplying electricity to nearly 200,000 households in the country. It was jointly built be several local and Chinese companies.

“Before entering the Middle Eastern market, many people were laughing at us because we decided to do the solar business in oil-rich countries,” Mothana Qteishat, a Shanghai-based Jinko Power solar Corporation told me in an interview.

His company played an important role in the construction of the Al Dhafra solar power plant. Currently, Jinko Power plans to expand its business in the region. While the Gulf remains the company’s core market, in the next decade it might switch its focus to other Middle Eastern nations. Presently, unlike oil-rich Gulf states, countries such as Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq face widespread power outages. Although in these countries rooftop solar panels offer the promise of a more stable way of living amid an unreliable electricity supply, the lack of framework and regulations, as well as political instability, prevent a mass construction of solar power plants there.

Thus, for the time being, the energy transition is likely to occur only in the Gulf countries, rather than across the broader Middle East region. It is, therefore, no surprise that the French energy giant EDF (Électricité de France), through its subsidiary EDF Renewables, plans to build 2 GW of renewable energy capacity every year in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabi, and Oman. According to Oliver Bordes, the company’s CEO, what makes these nations attractive is the fact that, unlike in most places around the world, there are no land issues that need to be resolved before the construction of solar plants begins.

That is why, both local and global green energy cooperation, see the Gulf as their major market. The UAE’s energy leaders share the same views, except when it comes to green hydrogen. Because of the lack of infrastructure and regulations in the region, they eye Europe and the United States, rather than Middle Eastern states, as their major green hydrogen export destinations. Thus, at least in the short-term, the future of the region lies a mix of fossil fuels and solar energy.

Solar farms in deserts benefit from higher solar irradiance, leading to greater energy output. It is, therefore, no surprise that Masdar, the UAE state-owned green energy giant, plans to build a new solar and battery energy facility that will deliver 1 gigawatt of uninterrupted clean power. The construction of the facility, in the desert near Abu Dhabi, is expected to cost $6 billion. If everything goes as planned, the plant will become fully operational by 2027.

Meanwhile, Masdar, according to Abdulaziz Alobaidli, the company’s Chief Operating Officer, will seek to broaden its operations not only in the Gulf, but also worldwide. Although the region remains its key market, Masdar is involved in the construction of wind farms and solar plants in Central Asia, Southeastern Europe, as well as in Africa and the South Pacific Area. The company also sought to enter the Chinese market, but things did not seem to go as planned.

“There is significant domestic and local competition there that doesn’t necessarily make us very competitive,” Abdulaziz Alobaidli told me, pointing out that, although big, China is not the primary market for Masdar.

The renewable energy corporation is looking to expand its business in the United States instead. That, however, does not mean that Masdar, or the UAE in general, will end its green energy cooperation with China. The fact that dozens of Chinese renewable energy companies participated in the Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, held in the UAE capital from January 12-18, clearly suggests that Beijing is seen as an important actor in the country’s green energy transition.

In neighboring Saudi Arabia, China, through JinkoSolar – one of the largest solar panel producers in the globe – plans to build the world’s biggest manufacturing plant for N-type solar cells and modules. In Oman, the Chinese Shuangliang Hydrogen has recently announced that it has secured a contract to supply green hydrogen production equipment for a major green ammonia project planned by India’s ACME Group in the Gulf country.

From the Chinese perspective, the Gulf, as one of the fastest-growing regions for new energy development, represents an ideal market. Although regional actors aim to expand their ties with Beijing, hoping that it will allow them to strengthen their renewable energy sectors, Donald Trump’s return to the White House could have an impact on their ambitions.

The United States has already imposed sanctions on several Chinese cleantech companies, and if the geopolitical rivalry between Washington and Beijing escalates, new measures against Chinese renewable energy corporations should not be ruled out. As a result, it is not improbable that the Gulf states – traditionally within the US sphere of influence – may find themselves in difficult position, as they might have to limit their cooperation with the People’s Republic.

If, however, the Trump administration decides to turn a blind eye to their ties with China, the Gulf countries, with Beijing’s help, have a high chance of accelerating their energy transition, and eventually position themselves as major renewable energy actors in the global arena. Thus, their green energy plans will likely heavily depend on the future dynamic of relations between Washington and Beijing.

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