by Prof. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal•Published on October 29, 2026

PAKISTAN, along with like-minded states, seeks to resolve the catastrophic conflicts in the Middle East through dialogue, diplomacy and de-escalation. However, the jingoistic statements by the leaders of Israel, the United States, Iran and the Houthis are alarming and suggest further regional destabilization with devastating consequences.

Presently, the continuation of three core conflicts in the region, i.e., the US-Israel-Iran conflict, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the civil war in Yemen, is affecting the international community. As the civil war in Yemen continues, Houthi militia attacks against Saudi Arabia are increasing, which worsens regional tensions. Likewise, closures of the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and the Black Sea are contributing to an international economic crisis.

The conflicting parties in the Middle East have three options: maintain the current position, escalate the conflict, or engage in dialogue. Neither stalemate nor escalation serves their interests or the international community’s, so Pakistani leadership is seeking to restore normalcy to the region. On October 20, 2026, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff and Chief of Defense Forces, Field Marshal Asim Munir, made his fifth visit to Tehran and met with the Iranian leadership to seek conflict resolution. However, the chances of dialogue, diplomacy and de-escalation remain limited. The international community is worried about the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East. On October 23, 2026, the meeting in Istanbul of the foreign ministers of Türkiye, Egypt, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia (R4), along with their counterparts from France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom, was a positive development because it showed wider concern and support for de-escalation.

The participation of the leading European powers shows that Europe is also feeling the effects of the Middle East conflicts. Therefore, they are cooperating with regional states to support sustainable peace through dialogue, diplomacy and de-escalation.

The European powers’ practical participation in initiatives aimed at bringing sustainable peace to the Middle East supports Pakistan’s efforts to restore peace in the region through peaceful means. During last week’s conference in Istanbul, the ministers, while acknowledging the significance of the three conflicts in the region, had “expressed their commitment to continue contributing towards diplomatic efforts aimed at promoting peace and stability in the region and beyond and addressing the security, economic and trade implications of these issues.” This commitment reinforces Pakistan’s position by linking diplomacy to regional stability.

The belligerent rhetoric and rigid stances of the clashing states and groups are less conducive to peace. Neither side shows flexible, actionable ways to off-ramp the conflict. Instead, each seems inclined to escalate the conflict to improve its position. The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, signed in June 2026, was a breakthrough between Iran and the United States; however, both sides failed to implement it.

Recently, Iran has announced seven points for de-escalation: cease the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon; release Iranian funds frozen abroad; end the American naval blockade on Iranian ports; stop American interference in Iran’s internal affairs; halt American cooperation with Iranian opposition groups; stop all American attacks on Iranian territory; and do not compromise on its enriched uranium stockpiles. Tehran has once again rejected the US demand to export enriched uranium out of the country because it considers its nuclear resources national wealth for domestic use. Importantly, all these subjects were covered in the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.

The Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s visit to Iran on October 19, 2026, has created the impression that Tehran’s leverage has improved on the diplomatic chessboard. It suggests continued Moscow diplomatic, economic and intelligence support, which may strengthen Tehran’s position. However, the Kremlin will continue to exercise restraint in direct military support for Iran, limiting the extent of that backing. Moreover, Iranian leadership cannot ignore that Moscow recently received a sanction waiver on its diesel exports until April 2027.

The resumption of war between Iran and the US cannot be ruled out in the near future. On October 23, 2026, President Donald Trump said, “We may do another little Epic Fury.” The US has deployed additional troops and military equipment to the Middle East, suggesting preparation for renewed conflict. American and Israeli forces also rehearsed attack plans. These developments suggest that Washington and Tel Aviv believe Epic Fury-2, or another bombing campaign, could bring victory. Prime Minister Netanyahu appears to believe that renewed military strikes and bombing against Iran and Hezbollah after the forthcoming American midterm election on November 3, 2026, would end the existential threats to Israel.

Epic Fury-2 will be serious because Iranian leadership has articulated its resolve to launch a retaliatory offensive. Hence, Iran will hit Israel and the Gulf states that host American facilities. The Iranian media reported last week that a US LUCAS drone was shot down over Bandar Abbas by the Iranian army’s air defense systems. This indicates that Iran’s missile and drone capability exists despite the American and Israeli bombing and that its military-industrial complex is still operating.

In conclusion, escalation of a conflict between Iran and the US will cause major destruction in the region and drive up oil and gas prices worldwide. Therefore, the international community must act collectively now to prevent Epic Fury-2.