Photo’s source: https://www.aa.com.tr/en, President Donald Trump and Premier Benjamin Netanyahu

Trump has previously proclaimed himself the “best thing that could ever happen to Israel” (Schechter), and in the wake of the recent U.S election, this claim reverberates with even greater intensity. With his return to power, Trump appears to embody the messiah the far right in Israel has been waiting for, and the ally Netanyahu has sought during the ongoing Israel – Hamas conflict and the broader Middle Eastern crisis.

For Netanyahu and the Israeli far right, Trump’s re-election and the formation of his new administration truly represent the ideal outcome, with right-wing settlers and extremist nationalist Zionists already hailing the incoming “dream team” (Burke). However, this victory will come at a significant cost to the Palestinians, as Trump is poised to continue his agenda of dismantling the status quo in the Middle East and effectively side-lining the Palestinian national cause in favour of a far right, extreme nationalist Zionist and pro-Israel agenda.

Trump 1.0 was already a blessing for the far right in Israel, as the Zionist religious factions fully capitalized on his first term. Acting as both donors and policymakers, the Zionist religious right became the primary influence in his ear and the architects of his first Israel agenda. They crafted a comprehensive shopping list of requests that the far right could only have dreamed of previously, delivered with the support of their newfound accomplice in Trump.

Since Trump’s first term, the ambitions and popularity of the far right in Israel have spread like an epidemic. Today, under the command of government ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, the Israeli far right occupies a dramatically different position than it did during Trump’s presidency. The far right have firmly entrenched themselves as presiding players in Israeli politics – an outcome that would have been unthinkable to the secular Israelis of the past.

This powerful far right presence in Israel, coupled with the political fragility of President Netanyahu, and the return of the most ‘pro-Israel’ president in American history – soon to be surrounded by the most pro-Israel administration in American history – presents a perilous prospect for the future of Palestinians and the Palestinian cause, while marking a new chapter and new opportunity for the Israeli far right. As we look ahead, the implication of Trump 2.0 will reshape the landscape and policies of the region in unprecedented ways, but one certainty remains: in this critical moment in Israeli history, Trump 2.0 is ‘the best thing that could ever happen to the far right in Israel’ and will further assist the implementation of their extreme nationalist Zionist agenda.

So, in what ways will Trump 2.0 shape Israeli policy, particularly in promoting the extreme nationalist Zionist agendas that the far right has long aspired to achieve?

First, it is essential to highlight the impact of Trumps cabinet selections. What is clear, is the new administration is poised to align closely with the Israeli far right, providing unwavering support to the Israeli government. Notably, Trump’s appointment of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee to U.S ambassador to Israel exemplifies this trend. Huckabee is a staunch Christian Zionist with a long history of denying the existence of the Palestinians, advocating for settlement expansion, and endorsing a one state solution. This appointment reflects a broader pattern in Trump’s administration, which include figures like Pete Hegseth, Marco Rubio, and Elise Stefanik, all of whom emphasise a pro-Israel agenda that prioritises the interests of the Israeli far right. With the Republican party having control over both the house and Congress, it is difficult to envision who or what might curb the president’s and his most loyal followers most extreme pro-Israel impulses.

One impulse emerging from Trump 2.0 is the presage of further territorial changes, particular regarding the extreme possibility of the annexation of Area C of the occupied West Bank. It is no coincident that shortly after Trump’s re-election – a long-time supporter of Israeli settlements, including having one named after him in the Golan heights – he was quickly congratulated by the Israeli far right and the settler community, who view his victory as an opportunity to assert full control over the West Bank. Immediately after Trump’s re-election Ben Smotrich declared that 2025 “would be the year of [Israeli] sovereignty in Judea and Samaria” (Sokol) which was echoed by Ben Gvir who similarly stated that “this is the time for sovereignty, this is the time for complete victory” (Fenton-Harvey). It is unlucky that this right-wing dream will come true in 2025 as Smotrich has declared, but with Trump as the new president the far right will undoubtedly leverage his administration to turn this vision into reality and one that will continually be discussed at high levels globally and gaining much attention over the next four years.

One certainty that is apparent under Trump 2.0 is the complete freedom of the Israeli far right government to act largely unrestrained in the occupied West Bank. This will likely result in further annexations, the approval of new settlements, and the transformation of illegal outposts into formal settlements. Additionally, it will facilitate in the continuation of unchecked systems of domination and oppression, along with support of discriminate and repressive laws that reinforce the far right, enabling them to propose and implement their system of occupation and control, that the Biden administration would likely oppose. 2023 marked the deadliest and most violent year of occupation on record for Palestinians in the West Bank. Given the ongoing support  for the far right from Trump, it is likely that this designation will persist in the years to come.

A new development in global politics is poised to significantly impact the policies pursued by the far right. This is as a result of the war on Gaza setting in motion a troubling decline of international law, with recent ICC arrest warrant for Netanyahu serving as the tipping point. Throughout the conflict, the ICC has faced challenges and even threats of retaliation for its pursuit of international justice. The recent condemnation of the arrest warrant by the U.S and Trump suggests the credibility and legitimacy of international law on the world stage are increasingly under threat. The pressing question the world faces is: how will intentional law endure in this volatile environment? What is certain, however, is that the fragility of the international justice system plays into the hands of the far right in Israel, allowing them to test their ability to assert Israel’s impunity on the global stage with the help of a president who is already above the law.

Trump has expressed a willingness for the conflict in Gaza to end sooner or later. However, under his leadership, any resolution is likely to be dictated by and on the terms of Israel and the far right. It is probable that Trump and his new administration will grant Israel considerable leeway – effectively carte blanche – to pursue their objectives. Trump is unlikely to pose challenging questions regarding the legality of military operations, the provisions of humanitarian aid, or the ambiguous status of Gaza after the conflict ends. This environment presents an opportunity for the far right to capitalise on concluding the war in alignment with their agenda. For Gazans, while a swift end to the war may seem preferable, a Trump-led resolution could ultimately be far worse than they anticipate.

To conclude, Donald Trumps’ recent victory represents the most advantageous outcome for the far right in Israel, solidifying his status as the best thing that could ever happen to their agenda. This alliance not only emboldens their agenda but also sets the stage for unprecedented changes in the region, with far-reaching implications for both Israeli and Palestinians futures over the next four years.

Bibliography:

Burke, Jason. “Right-wing settlers in Israel welcome ‘dream team’ of Trump and his hardline appointments”, Guardian, 17 Nov, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/17/rightwing-settlers-in-israel-welcome-dream-team-of-trump-and-his-hardline-appointments

Fenton-Harvey, Jonathan. “How Trump’s return paves the way for Israel’s annexation of the West Bank”, The New Arab, 20 Nov, 2024 https://www.newarab.com/analysis/trumps-win-israel-moves-closer-annexing-west-bank

Hearst, David. “Trump has a choice: Obliterate Palestine or end the war”, Middle East Eye, 7 Nov. 2024, https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/trump-two-choices-obliterate-palestine-end-war

Phelps, Jordyn. “Trump to play dealmaker with Israel and 2 Arab countries”, abcNews, Sep 15, 2020 https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-play-global-dealmaker-israel-arab-countries/story?id=73009451

Sokol, Sam. “Smotrich says Trump’s victory an opportunity to ‘apply sovereignty’ in the West Bank’, The Times of Israel, 11 Nov. 2024 https://www.timesofisrael.com/smotrich-says-trumps-victory-an-opportunity-to-apply-sovereignty-in-the-west-bank/

Disclaimer. The views and opinions expressed in this analysis are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of MEPEI. Any content provided by our author is of his opinion and is not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual, or anyone or anything.

About the author

Mr. Jacob ALSO

Mr. Jacob ALSOP holds a BA in Middle Eastern Studies from the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies at Exeter University, UK. His dissertation examined how housing demolition functions as a pivotal policy within the ethnocratic frameworks of Israel, particularly in the Naqab Desert, as well as comparatively in the regions of Delhi and Gujarat in India. His specialisation is in Middle Eastern Politics and history, with a particular focus on Palestinian Studies, Kurdish studies and Islamism.