Coordinates of the unlikely Bangladesh alignment with the West in 2024

Photo’s source: https://www.lightcastlebd.com

 

As if the crises around the world were not sufficient, on August the 5^th, 2024, the now former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina left her country in a military aircraft. In the aftermath of this event, reactions from various parties emerge. The head of Bangladeshi military Waker-uz-Zaman, spouse of Sheikh Hasina’s cousin, announced her resignation, an outcome leading eventually to a new political process.

In the aftermath of a century marked by foreign interventions in countries’ internal policies, with superpowers deploying tools to achieve geopolitical and associated goals, such a scenario was mentioned by certain media sources when presenting the 5^th of August events as well.

Bangladesh is a very large country in terms of population, with a short history in its existing political form and surrounded by large emerging economies. Hence, the underlying causes that could have been behind this turmoil could have been numerous, but this analysis will focus only on three relevant regional settings/coordinates that are briefly presented in following paragraphs: the India – Pakistan competition and its relevance for Bangladesh, the foreign interference aspect and the Chinese development project Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), that in the case of Bangladesh, does not appear to challenge India’s interests. Thirdly, the perspective of American military bases in this region will be analyzed.

Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Sheikh Hasina’s departure

Bangladesh became an independent country in 1971, when it split from Pakistan and change its name from East Pakistan to People’s Republic of Bangladesh. The 1947 Partition of India / The British Raj (in India and Pakistan) presented India with Pakistan as its neighbor both in the North-West and North-East. Without entering into details, it can be assumed that the independence of Bangladesh from Pakistan may have simplified certain regional security issues for India at least symbolically, despite a Bangladeshi overwhelming Muslim majority.

Sheikh Hasina is the daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the supporter of separation from Pakistan and first president of this country. Her father, (Sheikh Mujibur Rahman), along with her mother, and three brothers were assassinated in 1975 and she gradually overtook the leadership of Awami League (Britannica 2024).

The political landscape in Bangladesh was relatively unstable, but in principle, the Indians appear to have favored the political center formed by Sheikh Hasina and Awami League. Its main rival was Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), that is mentioned in its late period as a relatively right-wing party, accused Awami League of unfair (political) competition and the confrontation became acute. The Jamaat-e-Islami, with a religious agenda, was also kept aside from the political scene by the ruling party under Sheikh Hasina. As August 6^th, Jamaat-e-Islami announced reopening its headquarters in Dhaka after being closed in 2011 (court order prohibiting this is theoretically still in place), and Khaleda Zia, the leader of BNP jailed in 2018 for corruption is expecting to be released. Indian press mentions that Jamaat-e-Islami is backed by Pakistan (Sakib 2024).

Considering the above, the strong rivalry between India and Pakistan for influence in Bangladesh is a fundamental coordinate of recent developments. India considering its 1947 partition a tragedy, Pakistan considering its 1971 partition a tragedy and the potential further division of Bangladesh (as described in the next section) are all reminders of colonialism, its subjective and fragile aftermath, and the dangers of being in the wrong place at the wrong moment despite a presumed global “order” based on the rule-of-law.

Foreign interference: a coordinate of Hasina’s demise?

On the 5^th of August, former Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh and Foreign Secretary, Harsh Shringla, hinted at suspected “foreign hand” in Bangladesh (The Daily Guardian 2024).Earlier in 2024, multiple media channels reported Sheikh Hasina’s disclosures of external pressures. She particularly mentioned that “a white man” offered her smooth return to power in exchange for allowing a foreign airbase in Bangladesh (First Post 2024). In the same context, she revealed that foreign powers had conspired to create a new “Christian state like East Timor” that is supposed to absorb parts from Bangladesh, Myanmar, and reportedly refrained mentioning parts from India (Choudhury 2024). This news report mentions that previously, the US had asked for access to St. Martin Island. The US reportedly denied such talks (The Bussiness Standard 2023) and the plan to setup a Christian state (New Age 2024), but two aspects have to considered in this context: the form of the denial is very important when representatives like Spokesperson Matthew Miller presents them: “Matthew Miller, spokesperson for the US Department of State, asserted that the United States has never engaged in any discussions regarding taking control of St Martin’s Island or has any intention to do so” (he speaks for the State Department, and “taking control” is just a term) and secondly, the US could not overlook the possibility of a strategic base in the region as BRI is expanding. Furthermore, the US had begun to restrict visas for Bangladeshi officials, and whatever the justification, it was a trend in 2023 (Mahmud 2023).

An article from Indian Press claims that US Agency for International Development (USAID) “heavily” funds Bangladeshi organization BRAC (Building Resources Across Communities), founded by Sir Fazle Hasan Abed. BRAC would also be funded by Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and founded BRAC University. This nucleus carries out projects like Bangladesh America Maitree Project (OpIndia 2024). While this source is an unofficial and Indian source, it must be acknowledged that the receipt sounds familiar, but in order to objectively substantiate these claims, further study is required.

China is also heavily interested in developments related to Bangladesh. Not only does it rely on Bangladesh as a future developing market, but it reportedly deployed submarines at the BNS Sheikh Hasina base from Pekua in Cox’s Bazar (IDRW 2024) in early 2024. However, the differences between the alleged Western approach and the Chinese approach appear to be capital: China does not appear to interfere in Bangladeshi politics as much as other regional or global powers, did not appear to mention territorial changes, and it started long ago with an economic development proposal: BRI.

China’s BRI and Bangladesh, the region

BRI is a key coordinate to regional geopolitics, economy, and security. Bangladesh was the first regional country to join BRI in 2023 ( Keynote Speech of H.E. Ambassador Yao Wen  2023), and China announced a $ 40 billion package for this country (Mohsin 2023). As of October 2023, Chinese companies had already built 12 roads and 21 bridges in Bangladesh (Sun 2023).

Chinese economic and security interests in Bangladesh will remain significant, and most importantly, India appears to go along with this trend: India will probably compete China more, but it may prefer a Chinese influence in Bangladesh, rather an American/Western, or Pakistani one, which are less predictable in terms of security. It must also be considered, that this regional has a strong anti-colonial stance and countries like India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Malaysia, and many other South East Asian countries are part of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). Hence the superpower influence unconditional acceptance is relatively difficult to impose. And given China’s economic, diplomatic, and implicitly security expansion in the region, the US appears to have planned more bases in Bay of Bengal region.

Talks on American military bases in the Bay of Bengal/India region

Assuming that the talks on an American St. Martin Island military base were indeed false, as Spokesperson Miller stated, it must be acknowledged that the quest for bases in the region is obvious. A Eurasian Times article headline on Sheikh Hasina’s revelations calls the US “desperate for Military Base,” while also mentioning the denials (Choudhury 2024). Interestingly, the US announced in April 2023 that it also has no plan to setup a military base in Sri Lanka (Business Standard 2023). The Cocos Islands American military base is reportedly listed along with the Philippines, Timor-Leste, and Papua New Guinea as anticipated construction sites as part of the Pacific Deterrence Initiative (NDTV WORLD 2024). There are however relatively far away from the Bay of Bengal. China and India appear to compete for the Strait of Malacca military presence, and China appears to have stationed warships at Cambodia’s Ream naval base (Ferran 2024). While China’s increasing military presence is justified by BRI, proximity to this region and a history of hostility from certain naval powers, it appears rather difficult for the US to penetrate this region with an air/military base, and India is on the same page with China.

Conclusions

This analysis briefly mentioned a series of background details for the 5^th of August, 2024, events from Bangladesh along with the Indian, Chinese, Pakistani and potentially other interests related to Bangladeshi politics.

Key conclusion emerging from this analysis is that the region remains under significant and increasing Indian and Chinese influence, with Pakistan and probably other regional or global powers attempting to achieve objectives. Due to history and a potential hardship in justifying presence, the US and its probable allies appear to encounter difficulties in rallying countries for a potential air base in the region, while China can justify its economic interests and clarify its security concerns in immediate vicinity. The relative neutrality of China vis-à-vis Pakistan – India confrontation is visible in Bangladesh, but not only: Afghanistan is also a country in which the two neighbors compete for influence.

Finally, the possibility of a new Christian state that is supposed to reclaim territories from existing states is scrutinized in regional media and political circles, hence further monitoring of events is required to either confirm or refute such a direction.

Bibliography

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