Webinar “Post Davos 2023. From the Unipolar World to a Multipolar World?”

On January 26, 2023, MEPEI and EuroDefense Romania co-organized a Zoom webinar, following the closure of the debates in Davos’ World Economic Forum 2023 reunion.

With the title “Post Davos 2023. From the Unipolar World to a Multipolar World?”, through a rather judgmental approach, the speakers present engaged in a debate which illustrated the history and also the perspectives of the Davos Forum, but they also put forward the flaws of this type of gathering and its decreasing influence in the present world politics and economics.

Under the guidance of Prof. Liviu MUREŞAN, president of EuroDefense Romania, the speakers from Romania and abroad having contributed during the webinar are as follows:

• Adrian GHEORGHE, professor of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia, US;
• Adrian SEVERIN, former Romanian Foreign Affairs minister;
• (r) Corneliu PIVARIU, Romanian independent political analyst;
• (r) Carlos BRANCO, professor National Defense Institute, Portugal;
• Ambassador Viorel ISTICIOAIA-BUDURA, former Romanian diplomat and ambassador in Asia;
• Michael ZINKANELL, director of the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy (AIES);
• Andrei RĂDULESCU, director of macroeconomic analysis at the Romanian Transylvania Bank;
• Cristian DAVID, president of the Romanian Institute for Freedom and Democracy, former minister of internal affairs;
• Germano DOTTORI, scientific counsellor of the Italian geopolitical magazine Limes, of the Med-OR Foundation and of the Leonardo enterprise;
• Alexandru GEORGESCU, expert of the National Institute for Research and Development in Informatics (ICI Bucharest) and secretary general of EuroDefense Romania;
• Flavius CABA-MARIA, president of MEPEI.

Under the auspices of Prof. GHEORGHE’s presentation, focused on the history and the future of the Davos format, bearing in mind the title of the debate, the other speakers presented the elements debated at the Davos 2023 meeting, emphasizing the major points of interest discussed following the main theme of “Cooperation in a fragmented world”. During the four-day reunion, the speeches of those present reflected rather the fragmentation of the world into two completely separate blocs with completely different cultural elements, with the Euro-Atlantic bloc losing its relevance in favor of the Indo-Pacific and Asian bloc. Although the above-mentioned main topic was that of cooperation in a fragmented world, the debate focused more on issues intended to continue this state of affairs.

An element of interest that emerged in the context of this meeting was the necessity for the re-globalization of the supply chain, while still taking into account global fragmentation, both economic and political. In the end, the meeting emphasized the need for reorganization on a collective, worldwide level, to relaunch and solve the current major problems of humanity.

Overall, at the same time, other main elements of the Forum, as depicted by PhD. ZINKANELL during the webinar, are the following: the increase of uncertainty and instability at the global level, the world interconnection, especially in the context of the existing crises, globalization being nevertheless increasing, and the minimization of the global dimension, technology and digitization being elements with a catalytic role in context. Issues such as energy resources and decarbonization are topics that will be increasingly important from now on, and the invasion of Ukraine by Russia is a topic that can no longer be denied.

Prof. SEVERIN declared that the Davos Forum does not have the ability to solve existing crises, but rather can create new crises or be invalidated by crises. In this context, the meeting in 2023 is significant mainly because of the absent personalities than the present ones. From the G7 group, only the German chancellor was present, noting the absence of China and Russia, with Iran not having a voice for a very long time. Moreover, the event reflected the fact that the EU representative is only a puppet of the US, in the context in which the EU is losing its relevance. Thus, even the US representatives were absent.

From his point of view, the most relevant speech was that of UN Secretary Guterres who highlighted the fragmentation of the world and mutual hostility, with an emphasis on the growing unrest and discontent of the southern hemisphere against the northern one. Moreover, the fact that he chose Davos over New York or Geneva for this speech only underlines the failure of the UN from a democratic perspective, the speech being thus addressed to the oligarchs and promoters of world anarchy, at the expense of a context with democratic valences, such as those previously mentioned. This is nothing but proof of the need for the democratic revitalization of the world, the UN and its auxiliary organizations, so that political power returns to the people, to promote common projects, the solidarity of interests, the indivisibility of security and collective security, the balance between capital and labour, between security and individuals so that current leaders can take responsibility.

According to Gen. PIVARIU, the conflict in Ukraine was another main visible element at the 2023 Forum, therefore he chose to summarize it in his speech by depicting how it unfolded, the influence of external actors and the course of action of the two main actors involved. Against the background of these aspects, he stated that sovereignty is becoming a new trend visible at the global level.

Gen. Carlos BRANCO underlined the need to change the European economic model, dependent on foreign resources, whose long-term sustainability is not viable and cannot be supported in the current context. The EU’s success with largely result from its adaptability and the usage of future technologies and industries, by becoming self-reliant in terms of necessary raw materials and prime goods. He stated that all these are essential in order for Europe’s continuing competitive advantage over other states or organizations.

With a vast expertise on Asia, Amb. ISTICIOAIA-BUDURA pointed to the absence of many G7 leaders in Davos, as well as of Asian leaders, among which China, while reminding of the importance of Asian countries and of the three high-level summits organized in Asia last year, G20, APEC and ASEAN, and of what Anthony Blinken, called “the rest of the world”, namely, Asian countries that do not follow the Euro-Atlantic order, but have become a significant part of the global economy.

Analysing this event in his entirety, Mr. DAVID declared that the summit has a general ability to anticipate, being mainly just a networking network. However, he did mention that among the notable topics, it should be emphasized that the US, Europe and China want a new industrial policy with impact on new trade policies. And digitization will have a major impact on supply chains. Another important point discussed at Davos is that of artificial intelligence that will transform business and economies.

PhD. RĂDULESCU considers that geopolitically, the world is in the middle of a technological showdown between the US and China, and this phenomenon is set to intensify at least until the end of the current decade.

Also, since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the world is facing a new type of globalization, being in the process of transition from a globalization of efficiency to one of resilience. So, being in a period of great transformation towards a new world, the presence of strong political leaders who have the power to carry out the transition in a positive way is opportune, given that most battles between US and China will be carried out in Europe.

PhD. DOTTORI also agreed that Davos meeting became too politicized and not too useful, but he sees the prospects for the future of the world not so bleak like a few months ago.

By taking into account the format and the example of the forum, PhD. GEORGESCU highlighted the idea that the world will witness the formation of clubs for international governance, where certain states will decide and impose taxes, for example on ozone, which will also be imposed on other states (for example, in 2001, taxes were imposed to stop the destruction of the ozone layer to China and other countries, in order to change these behaviours), these being methods that create adversities.

In the end, Mr. CABA-MARIA pointed to the BRICS countries, complementing the idea mentioned by several speakers that the Western institutions seem to have lost their ability to solve the global problems and to ensure economic equality.