by Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal•Published on January 26, 2026

IRAN’S prevailing internal turmoil is problematic for its ruling elite and alarming for the entire region.

The rising inflation and economic grievances have unleashed demonstrations across the country on December 28, 2025, which have evolved into an open call for regime change and a challenge to the ideological foundations of Iran. The demise of the nearly 46-year political system may satisfy the opposition and create a conducive regional environment for Israel and the United States Middle Eastern agenda, but it could be a recipe for instability in the region. The political spillover will have serious repercussions for the neighbouring states. It sharpens sectarian cleavages and intensifies radicalized militancy, reshaping the dynamics in the Middle East.

The most alarming factor in the prevailing Iranian imbroglio is President Donald Trump’s signaling of military adventurism against Iran. The Trump Administration’s endeavor to exploit Iran’s internal situation to destabilize its political system is a repeat or revival of previous playbooks. The Americans had attempted to dethrone the clergy by quashing the ideological foundation of the state on various occasions, but miserably failed. The primary objective of President Trump’s vocal support of the protestors, intensifying economic sanctions and military invasion threats to Iran is to discredit the Iranian ruling elite and replace it with puppet leadership, which will roll back Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, systematically cut its military potential and accept Israel’s hegemony in the region.

The United States and Iran’s diplomatic relations have been suspended since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, leading to the Iran Hostage Crisis of 1979-1980. The relationship was further strained due to Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and Tehran’s proxies in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Palestine and Lebanon. Iran armed and trained Shiite militants through its Quds Force—the international arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—in the Middle East. Iran’s Axis of Resistance poses a challenge to Israeli national security and the US regional interests. The shift in Iran and Israel’s indirect confrontation, from proxy-based hostilities to direct exchanges of strikes, also involved the American forces deployed in the region in 2024.

Iran’s firm resistance (Operation True Promise III) to Israeli-launched Operation Rising Lion against it on June 13, 2025, necessitated the US direct military involvement. Realizing the political, military and economic devastating repercussions of the longevity of the war on Israel, the Trump Administration directly intervened in the conflict. On June 21, 2025, the US launched an operation—codenamed Midnight Hammer—that involved 125 US military aircraft, including seven B-2 stealth bombers and two dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles, targeting three Iranian nuclear facilities: Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. This attack was the first time in which the US used its 14 largest bunker-busting bomb, the GBU-57 Massive Ordinance Penetrator (MOP), in an operational conflict. Trump is the first US President to attack another country’s nuclear program and the first to explicitly join Israel in an attack on Iran. Indeed, it was a moment of triumph for the Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who for decades had urged American presidents to act militarily on Iran.

The Trump Administration has further tightened the economic sanctions on Iran. On January 12, 2026, Trump announced, “Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America.” On January 15, the US Department of the Treasury imposed sanctions on five Iranian officials, including the Secretary of the Supreme Council for National Security and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the commander of law enforcement forces, for the violent crackdown on protesters. These sanctions also affect US allies and partners, including European states, Japan and South Korea.

The operation Midnight Hammer sets a precedent that Trump may repeat the military strikes in any future conflict with Iran. Therefore, when he promised on social media to the protesters that the US would aid them and threatened that the US military intervene if Iran’s regime used lethal force, everyone took it seriously in the region. The Iranian leadership announced the tit for tat response. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, warned that any attack on Iran would make Israel and all US military bases and assets in the region “legitimate targets.” Iran has the potential to strike at Israel and the US bases across the region, which spans Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Türkiye and the UAE. On June 23, 2025, Iran launched a missile attack on US forces stationed at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Moreover, it can disrupt the safety of sea lanes in the Arabian Sea and disturb trade through the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, the neighbouring states of Iran directly and indirectly approached the Americans to refrain from using their military might against Iran.

Before taking any military steps, the Trump Administration must understand that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has powerful and loyal security forces and very strong support in the Iranian society. The media reported large crowds of regime supporters rallying in Tehran and other cities, chanting “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.” With military strikes, the US forces can derail Iran’s military capability, simultaneously strengthening Iranian nationalism, evolving into internal cohesion and increasing regime support. The pre-emptive US strike boosts the Iranian ruling elite’s narrative, an existential battle for national survival and legitimizes a far harsher crackdown on the demonstrators. Thus, the US pre-emptive strikes would backfire.

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Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal

The writer is Prof at the School of Politics and IR, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad