With Donald Trump now elected as the next president and set to assume office shortly, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region again stands at a critical juncture. Trump’s first presidency left a lasting impact on the region, characterized by an unconventional blend of transactional diplomacy, bold initiatives, and outright disruption of established norms. For some regional powers, his policies represented opportunities for realignment and strategic advancement; for others, they brought uncertainty and frustration. With his return to the White House imminent, leaders in the region are preparing for a potential shift that could once again reshape alliances, redefine priorities, and recalibrate the region’s relationship with Washington.

During his first term, Trump’s approach to the Middle East prioritized two primary goals: strengthening ties with key allies and recalibrating U.S. engagement to align with a clear “America First” agenda. His administration’s crowning achievement, the Abraham Accords, marked a historic breakthrough by normalizing diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab states, including the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. While previous U.S. administrations had focused on resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a gateway to regional stability, Trump flipped the script. By side-lining the Palestinian issue and focusing on shared security and economic interests, particularly in countering regional threats, he facilitated a new era of regional cooperation that had eluded his predecessors.

For leaders in the Gulf, Trump’s policies were a welcome shift. His administration’s close alignment with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates reinforced their strategic ambitions and consolidated regional leadership. Trump’s decision to prioritize bilateral relations over multilateral commitments enabled Gulf states to pursue their own interests more assertively, from Yemen to Libya, without fear of significant U.S. pushback. Trump was a reliable partner for the Gulf monarchies who understood their security concerns, particularly in an era where oil markets and energy policies carried renewed geopolitical weight.

Trump’s legacy in MENA politics also carried a reputation for unpredictability. His decision to move the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, for instance, while celebrated by Israel and its supporters, fractured trust among Arab and Muslim communities. Similarly, his abrupt decisions regarding U.S. troop movements in Syria sparked concerns about Washington’s long-term commitment to regional stability. Trump’s transactional style of diplomacy, which often downplayed broader humanitarian and strategic goals, left allies and adversaries alike uncertain about where U.S. priorities genuinely lay.

Fast-forward to today, the region Trump left behind in 2021 is strikingly different. MENA is increasingly defined by shifting alliances and the emergence of new power centres. Saudi Arabia, under the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has cemented its role as a regional heavyweight. Riyadh’s growing independence from Washington is evident in its engagement with broader partners, including China and Russia. At the same time, the United Arab Emirates has emerged as a dynamic player in both economic and geopolitical spheres, building a reputation as a bridge between East and West. Israel, meanwhile, continues to strengthen its position as a regional leader despite domestic political crises and ongoing tensions with Palestinians.

Trump’s second presidency will undoubtedly focus on building upon the Abraham Accords, a success that Trump sees as a personal and political triumph. Expanding the normalization agreements to include Saudi Arabia will likely become a priority, offering a historic breakthrough aligning with U.S. and regional goals. While Riyadh has expressed cautious openness to such a deal, it comes with significant demands—chief among them U.S. security guarantees and access to advanced technology, including nuclear capabilities for civilian purposes. Trump’s pragmatic and transactional style could make him the leader willing to offer Saudi Arabia the assurances it needs, thereby achieving a diplomatic feat with profound consequences for the region.

Energy security will also emerge as a key focus for Trump. With renewed pressure and shifting demand patterns in global energy markets, his return could recalibrate U.S. relations with OPEC producers. His previous presidency demonstrated a clear understanding of oil and gas’s role in global power dynamics, and he may seek to strengthen U.S. ties with significant energy players like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to secure favorable outcomes for American interests. This could take the form of new partnerships, trade agreements, or even strategic interventions in global oil markets to counter the influence of competitors like Russia. The potential implications of this focus on energy security include changes in international energy prices, shifts in geopolitical alliances, and increased competition among energy-producing nations.

In addition to energy, Trump’s focus on counterbalancing China’s growing influence in MENA will become a central theme. Over the past few years, Beijing has emerged as a critical economic and diplomatic partner for Gulf states and other regional actors. Its brokering of the Saudi-Iran rapprochement earlier this year signalled China’s readiness to challenge U.S. influence in the region. A second Trump administration will likely confront this challenge directly, using economic incentives, military cooperation, and strategic partnerships to reaffirm U.S. dominance in the region. For Trump, countering China will be a regional priority and a cornerstone of his broader foreign policy agenda.

However, Trump’s return could also introduce new waves of uncertainty. His aversion to multilateral frameworks and preference for bilateral deals may undermine U.S. partnerships built under the Biden administration. Moreover, his often-controversial rhetoric and actions could further exacerbate regional divides, alienating key players while emboldening others. A consistent, long-term strategy could strengthen Washington’s ability to serve as a stabilizing force, particularly in conflict-prone regions like Syria, Libya, and Yemen.

For MENA leaders, the prospect of Trump’s return represents both an opportunity and a challenge. Those who flourished under his transactional diplomacy may welcome his return, seeing it as a chance to advance their national interests in a more flexible and results-driven environment. Others, however, may view his re-engagement as a destabilizing factor that risks undoing hard-won progress. It’s essential to consider the potential reactions of these leaders, as their responses will shape the region’s political landscape. Ultimately, Trump’s next move in the Middle East will depend on his ability to adapt to the region’s evolving dynamics while staying true to his core foreign policy instincts.

In conclusion, the Middle East remains a stage where global powers compete for influence, and local actors manoeuvre to secure their place in an increasingly multipolar world. Whether Trump’s second presidency will be a game-changer or another source of volatility remains uncertain. It’s important to note that Trump will face significant challenges in his second term, including navigating complex regional dynamics, managing potential backlash from his policies, and balancing the interests of various regional powers. What is clear, however, is that his return will once again place the United States at the centre of MENA politics, reshaping alliances and challenging the status quo in ways that will reverberate across the region and beyond.

Disclaimer. The views and opinions expressed in this analysis are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of MEPEI. Any content provided by our author is of his opinion and is not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual, or anyone or anything.

About the author

Amin BAGHERI

Amin BAGHERI is an Iranian research fellow at the International Studies Association in Tehran, Iran. His primary research interest lies in international relations, political science, and conflicts in the Middle East. You can see more of his work on Twitter @bghr_amin.