‘Assad’s fall and its consequences: a new era Begins’

Photo: The scenes of joy in Lebanon following the end of the Assad regime are justified and understandable (File/AFP)

 

Thirteen years of unremitting conflict, and 50 years of authoritarian rule of the Assad family came to an unforeseen and abrupt end on Sunday 8^th December. The rebel offensive’s success in taking over Damascus and toppling President Bashar al-Assad – led by a coalition of Syrian rebel groups spearheaded by the Islamist political and militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – has paved the way for the beginning of a transformative and exciting chapter for Syria and the Syrian people. This victory ushers in both immense challenges and opportunities for the nation and other global players, with geopolitical and regional consequences that extend beyond national borders.

Before analysing the consequences of the fall of Assad, it is pertinent to examine Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist militant group at the centre of these recent developments headed by Abu Mohammad al-Julani. HTS is an Islamist political and militant group that has consolidated its hold over the geographic core of the Syrian insurgency against the regime of Basher al-Assad since 2017, primarily operating in Syria’s Greater Idleb area.

The groups pedigree includes more than a decade of mergers and splits, with its latest iteration being the former Syrian al-Qai’dia affiliate Jabhat al-Nusrah. However, HTS has followed a rather peculiar trajectory within the jihadist landscape, as while its geneses were rooted in al-Qa’ida, it has subsequently relinquished its alliance to the latter, progressively bringing about a direction that Silivia Carenzi argues constitutes a process of “downward scale shift” (Carenzi, 2020:92). This shift has allowed HTS to successfully implement an increasingly locally-focused strategy, enabling it to survive and adapt within the local environment.  This is illustrated in HTS’s efforts to gain legitimacy in the eyes of local populations by presenting itself as an intrinsic part of the Syrian revolution and projecting a local focus. This is exemplified by the formation of the de facto Syrian Salvation Government (SSG), which functions as the HTS’s governance wing. Through the SGG, the group has embedded itself within local communities, gaining political, social, and economic influence while projecting an image of pragmatism and moderation.

This had allowed HTS to rise and sustain itself as the most powerful anti-government armed group in northwest Syria, and the geographic core of the Syrian insurgency against Assad. Now, the group stands as the dominant force in governing the entire country and will pave the new path and history of the future of Syria.

Firstly, the historic significance of this moment for Syrians cannot be overstated. There is a palpable euphoria among all Syrians – both at home and abroad. This is a people who have suffered unconditionally for five decades, subjected to a horrifying litany of human rights violations and tyranny. They have faced chemical weapon attacks, barrel bombs, murder, torture, corruption, enforced disappearances, and mass extermination at the hands of a brutal regime, along with Imperial abuses by Iran and Russia, and betrayal by regional and international actors. The fall of the Assad regime paves the way for Syrians to finally carve out their own direction. A new beginning.

What is key is that Syria’s future must be determined by the Syrian people. It is Syria’s moment to lead. The fall of Assad has created an opportunity for political reform, democratization, and the rebuilding of a war-torn nation as envisioned by the 2012 Geneva Final Communique and United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254. With Assad gone without resistance, there is an opportunity to create an inclusive government that represents Syria’s ethnically and religiously diverse population, foster economic recovery, and allow refugees and internally displaced people to return.

So far, HTS is doing and saying the right thing. They quickly engaged with the diverse communities in Aleppo, Hama, and Damascus to reassure minority groups that they would not be harmed and that this new chapter is for all Syrians. They have begun to establish an effective system of governance, as evidenced by the prompt appointment of Mohammad al-Bashir as head of interim government until March 1, 2025. While it is still early days, the ability of HTS military chief Abu Mohammad al-Julani to consolidate internal stability, foster trust among Syria’s diverse population, and resist foreign exploitation will be crucial in defining Syria’s transition to lasting peace, justice, and prosperity.

While the political transition and future direction of Syria must ultimately be determined by Syrians, the international community – particularly the Gulf Arab states, European Union, United Nations, and United States – must step up and provide support as Syria passes through this challenging phase.  One crucial action the international community must take is to engage directly with HTS and the emerging transnational government. This will be challenging initially, given that HTS is a heavily sanctioned terrorist group. However, failing to recognise the group’s legitimacy and its role in overthrowing Assad’s regime, as well as its popularity among the Syrian populace, will only alienate and radicalize its leadership and supporters during this fragile and critical period. Such failure to adequately delist HTS could also restrict much- needed economic support, humanitarian aid for a country where 90 percent of the population is under the poverty line – and that is even before the hundreds of thousands of refugees that want to return. It is in the collective interest of the international community for Syria to become a success story and they only way that can be achieved is if the intentional community supports Syria’s direction and transitional government and not the other way round.

The international repercussions of Syria’s regime change are no less momentous.

Basher al-Assad’s fall represents a significant setback for Russia and its regional influence. Russia’s intervention in Syria was a cornerstone of its strategy to reassert global dominance. By supporting Assad’s regime through financial support, airstrikes and ground support, Russia aimed to position itself as a decisive power broker in the Middle East. Recent developments, however, deal a heavy blow to this narrative and strategy, diminishing Russia’s standing in the global geopolitical order and its ability to shape outcomes in the region. Moreover, Russia’s military investments in Syria, including the Hmeimim airbase and Tartus naval base, are now under threat. These military bases are crucial for maintaining Russia’s strategic presence in Africa and the Middle East and for Russia’s power projection into North Africa, including Sudan, Libya, and the Sahel. The potential loss of these bases would significantly weaken Russia’s operational capabilities and credibility in Africa, and the Middle East, as the Juntas its supports in West Africa, along with the regimes in Central Africa and on the Atlantic Coat, have just witnessed Russia’s true impotence in a moment of crisis.

Similarly, the collapse of Assad’s regime represents a significant blow to Iran, marking one of the most critical setbacks for the Islamic Republic since the Iran-Iraq war. Specifically, Assad’s fall delivers a heavy blow to Iran’s “axis of resistance” in the Levant. For four decades, Syria has served as a vital conduit to Lebanon and its prized proxy, Hezbollah, along with other militias such as Hamas and the Houthis. With Assad’s collapse, Tehran loses its primary entry point into the Levant, fundamentally upending the core assumptions that have long underpinned Iranian strategy in the Middle East. This defeat is exacerbated by the fact that other key pillars of Iranian influence in the Levant have been severely diminished due to years of conflict, illustrating the near end of the Iran’s “axis of resistance”. As a result, Iran’s influence may become increasingly confined to the Gulf region. Moreover, it is clear that the value of nuclear deterrence has increased for Iran. As other pillars of deterrence have crumbled, it will be essential to monitor how Iran’s strategy evolves in response to the fallout from Assad’s collapse and how it continues to position itself as a key player, and how it maintains control domestically.

One of the clear winners following the fall of Assad’s regime is Türkiye. For years, Türkiye and President Erdoğan have been the most steadfast supporters of the Syrian opposition, often at the expense of domestic support due to the steep security, political, and economic costs, as well as the influx of Syrian refugees. However, Assad’s recent demise represents a significant payoff for Erdoğan’s Syria policy. Türkiye now possesses the strongest channel’s of communication and a history of collaboration with Syrian opposition groups including HTS, positioning Erdoğan to crucially reap the benefits of Assad’s downfall both domestically and internationally. Before the fall of Assad, Turkey’s Syria policy was centred around four key objectives: a partial refoulement of Syrian refugees; enhanced border security; diminishing the political and territorial gains of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF); and securing concessions from the regime for its allied Syrian opposition groups during negotiations. With the regime’s collapse, the fourth goal has become obsolete. However, Ankara will seek to achieve its remaining objective by leveraging its influence with the new government in Damascus, all while maintaining military pressure on the SDF.

Although a post-Assad Syria offers opportunities for Ankara, there is also unignorable risk that the HTS and the Syrian National Army (SNA), bolstered by significant support from Turkey, may quietly collaborate against the SDF and the Kurds in north-western Syria. This is a critical issue for the international community and in particular to monitor, not only to safeguard the Kurdish community but also to prevent further violence among different groups in a country that has been promised inclusivity for all.

To conclude, the recent events in Syria present an unparalleled opportunity for Syrians to embark on a transformative new chapter in their history. This victory does not only open the door for the Syrian people to shape their future but also ushers in immense challenges and opportunities for the nation and the global community, with the geopolitical ramifications that extend far beyond its border.

Bibliography:

Carenzi, Silvia. “A Downward Shift? The Case of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham” Persepctives on Terroism (Lowell), vol. 14, no. 6, 2020, pp. 91-105.

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